(CNN) Japan and South Korea are engaged in a heated military dispute that analysts say could damage the already tenuous geopolitical situation in northeast Asia if the two sides do not reach a resolution.
(CNN) ÀϺ»°ú Çѱ¹ÀÌ ¶ß°Å¿î ±º»çÀû ³íÀïÀ» ¹úÀÌ°í ÀÖÀ¸¸ç, ¾çÃøÀÌ ÇØ°áÃ¥À» ãÁö ¸øÇÑ´Ù¸é µ¿ºÏ¾Æ½Ã¾ÆÀÇ ÀÌ¹Ì ºÒ¾ÈÁ¤ÇÑ ÁöÁ¤ÇÐÀû »óȲ¿¡ ¼Õ»óÀ» ÀÔÈú ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù°í ºÐ¼®°¡µéÀº ¸»ÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù.
The spat began December 20 after an encounter between a Japanese plane, which Tokyo said was collecting intelligence, and a South Korean destroyer, which Seoul said was on a humanitarian mission.
±× ´ÙÅùÀº Á¤º¸¼öÁý ÁßÀ̾ú´Ù°í ÀϺ» Á¤ºÎ°¡ ¹àÇû´ø ÀϺ» Ç×°ø±â¿Í Çѱ¹ Á¤ºÎ°¡ ÀεµÀû ÀÓ¹«¸¦ ¼öÇàÇÏ°í ÀÖ¾ú´Ù°í ¸»ÇÑ Çѱ¹ ±¸ÃàÇÔ »çÀÌÀÇ ±ÙÁ¢»óȲÀÌ ÀÖ¾ú´ø 12¿ù 20ÀÏ ½ÃÀ۵Ǿú´Ù.
Both sides disagree on what happened next — the Japanese said the South Koreans targeted their aircraft with missile-targeting radar, while the South Koreans said the Japanese plane was flying dangerously low and that the radar “was not intended to trace any Japanese-controlled aircraft.”
ÇÑÀÏ ¾ç±¹Àº ±× ´ÙÀ½ ¹ú¾îÁø »óȲ¿¡ ´ëÇØ ¼·Î ÀÌ°ßÀ» º¸ÀÌ°í ÀÖ´Ù. ÀϺ» ´ç±¹Àº Çѱ¹ÀÌ ÀڽŵéÀÇ Ç×°ø±â¸¦ ¹Ì»çÀÏ ¸ñÇ¥ ÃßÀû ·¹ÀÌ´Ù·Î Á¶ÁØÇß´Ù°í ¸»ÇÑ ¹Ý¸é Çѱ¹ Á¤ºÎ´Â ÇØ´ç ÀϺ» ÃÊ°è±â°¡ À§ÇèÇÒ Á¤µµ·Î ³·°Ô ºñÇàÇßÀ¸¸ç ±× ·¹ÀÌ´õ´Â “ÀϺ» Ç×°ø±â¸¦ ÃßÀûÇϱâ À§ÇÑ Àǵµ°¡ ¾Æ´Ï¾ú´Ù”°í ¸»Çß´Ù.
The disagreement has quickly escalated, bringing to the fore historical disputes previously on the back-burner and — in turn — threatening the region’s stability.
¾ç±¹ÀÇ ÀÌ°ßÀº ºü¸£°Ô È®´ëµÇ¾î ÀÌÁ¦²¯ µÞÀü¿¡ ³²°ÜÁ³´ø ¿¹ÀüÀÇ ¿ª»çÀû ³íÀïÀ¸·Î±îÁö À̾îÁö¸ç ±× Áö¿ªÀÇ ¾ÈÁ¤À» À§ÇùÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù.
“East Asian geopolitics has been shaken loose and is now unsettled,” said Van Jackson, a former US Department of Defense official specializing in the Asia-Pacific.
¹Ì±¹ ±¹¹æºÎ Àü ¾ÆÅÂÁö¿ª ´ã´çÀÚ¿´´ø ¹Ý Àè½¼Àº “µ¿¾Æ½Ã¾Æ ÁöÁ¤ÇÐÀÌ ¸¶±¸ Èçµé·Á ÀÌÁ¦ ºÒ¾ÈÁ¤ÇÑ »óÅ¿¡ ÀÖ´Ù”°í ¸»Çß´Ù.
“China is seeking to push out the US, North Korea has pulled a jiujitsu move by using summit diplomacy to solidify its status as a nuclear state even as the ostensible purpose is to denuclearize Pyongyang, and the future of the US in the region is less certain now than any time since the 1970s.
“Áß±¹Àº ¹Ì±¹À» ¹Ð¾î³»·Á ÇÏ°í ÀÖ°í, ºÏÇÑÀº Ç¥¸é»óÀÇ ¸ñÀûÀº ºÏÇÑÀÇ ºñÇÙȶó°í Çϳª, ¸¶Ä¡ ÁÖÁþ¼ö¸¦ Çϵí Á¤»óȸ´ã ¿Ü±³¸¦ ÅëÇØ ÇÙ º¸À¯±¹À¸·Î¼ÀÇ ÁöÀ§¸¦ È®°íÈ÷ ÇÏ°í ÀÖÀ¸¸ç, ±× Áö¿ª¿¡¼ÀÇ ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ ¹Ì·¡´Â 1970³â´ë ÀÌÈÄ ¾î´À ¶§º¸´Ùµµ ºÒÈ®½ÇÇÏ´Ù.
“Amid all this tumult, suppressed animosities are started to crack through the veneer of regional stability.”
“ÀÌ ¸ðµç ³í¶õÀÇ ¿ÍÁß¿¡, ±×°£ ¾ïÁ¦µÇ¾ú´ø Àû´ëÀû °¨Á¤ÀÌ Çã¿ï »ÓÀÎ Áö¿ª ¾ÈÁ¤À» ±ú°í µå·¯³ª±â ½ÃÀÛÇß´Ù.”
This revived tension comes at a terrible time for the United States — the Trump administration is currently preparing for its second summit with North Korea, while also inching towards a key deadline in trade talks with China.
Æ®·³ÇÁ ÇàÁ¤ºÎ°¡ ºÏÇÑ°úÀÇ 2Â÷ Á¤»óȸ´ãÀ» Áغñ ÁßÀÌ°í Áß±¹°úÀÇ ¹«¿ªÈ¸´ãÀÇ ÁÖ¿ä ÀïÁ¡ÀÌ ¸·¹ÙÁö¿¡ À̸¥ Çö ½ÃÁ¡¿¡ ÀÌ·¸°Ô ´Ù½Ã ºÎÈ°ÇÑ ±äÀå°ü°è´Â ¹Ì±¹¿¡°Ô´Â ¾ÆÁÖ ÁÁÁö ¾Ê´Ù.
Shortly after the initial incident, Japan and South Korea held working-level meetings to try to resolve the issue behind closed doors.
ù »ç°Ç Á÷ÈÄ¿¡ ÀϺ»°ú Çѱ¹Àº ºñ°ø°³·Î ±× ¹®Á¦¸¦ ÇØ°áÇϱâ À§ÇØ ½Ç¹«ÀÚ±Þ È¸ÀǸ¦ °³ÃÖÇß´Ù.
It appears to not have worked — and neither side is buying the other’s explanation.
±×·¯³ª ÀÌ´Â ¼º°øÀûÀÌÁö ¸øÇÑ µí º¸À̸ç, ¾î´À Âʵµ »ó´ë¹æÀÇ ¼³¸íÀ» ¼ö¿ëÇÏÁö ¾Ê°í ÀÖ´Ù.
Japan released video of the incident from its perspective on December 28. South Korea released its own video on January 4. Each accused the other of misleading the public and distorting the facts.
ÀϺ»Àº 12¿ù 28ÀÏ ÀϺ»ÀÇ ÀÔÀå¿¡¼ »ç°Ç¿¡ ´ëÇÑ µ¿¿µ»óÀ» °ø°³Çß´Ù. ÀÌ¿¡ Çѱ¹Àº 1¿ù 4ÀÏ ÀÚü ¿µ»óÀ» ¹ßÇ¥Çß´Ù. ¾çÃø ¸ðµÎ ¼·Î¿¡ ´ëÇØ ´ëÁßÀ» ¿ÀµµÇÏ°í »ç½ÇÀ» ¿Ö°îÇß´Ù°í ºñ³Çß´Ù.
Japan has conducted three other flybys over South Korean ships this month — one last week, one on Tuesday and another Wednesday. Seoul publicly condemned the latest as a “clearly provocative act” against a “partner country.”
ÀϺ»Àº À̹ø ´Þ¿¡ Çѱ¹ ¼±¹ÚÀÇ »ó°ø¿¡¼ Áö³ ÁÖ¿¡ ÇÑ ¹ø, È¿äÀÏ ÇÑ ¹ø, ¶Ç ¼ö¿äÀÏ¿¡ ÇÑ ¹ø ÃÑ ¼¼ ¹øÀÇ ¶Ç ´Ù¸¥ Á¢±Ù ºñÇàÀ» ½Ç½ÃÇß´Ù. Çѱ¹ Á¤ºÎ´Â °¡Àå ÃÖ±ÙÀÇ ºñÇàÀÌ “µ¿¸Í ±¹°¡”¿¡ ´ëÇÑ “¸í¹éÇÑ µµ¹ß ÇàÀ§”¶ó°í °ø°³ÀûÀ¸·Î ºñ³Çß´Ù.”
South Korea’s Defense Ministry released this radar photo, which it says shows a Japanese patrol aircraft 7.5 kilometers (4.6 miles) away from the South Korean naval destroyer Dae Joyeong.
Lawmaker Song Young-gil, from South Korea’s ruling Democratic Party, has even gone so far as to suggest Seoul pull out of its General Security of Military Information Agreement, a pact allowing the two countries to share sensitive intelligence.
Çѱ¹ÀÇ Áý±Ç´çÀÎ ¹ÎÁÖ´çÀÇ ¼Û¿µ±æ ÀÇ¿øÀº ½ÉÁö¾î ÇÑÀÏ ¾ç±¹ÀÌ ¹Î°¨ÇÑ Á¤º¸¸¦ °øÀ¯ÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖµµ·Ï ÇÏ´Â ÇùÁ¤ÀÎ ±º»çÁ¤º¸º¸È£ÇùÁ¤¿¡¼ Çѱ¹ÀÌ Å»ÅðÇÒ °ÍÀ» Á¦¾ÈÇϱâ±îÁö Çß´Ù.
“The context is key,” he said.
±×´Â “±×·¯ÇÑ ¸Æ¶ôÀÌ ÇÙ½ÉÀÌ´Ù”¶ó°í ¸»Çß´Ù.
Historical adversaries
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Despite their historical differences, South Korea and Japan share plenty of surface similarities. They’re both vibrant democracies with developed economies. Geopolitically, they are both US allies; they both want a denuclearized North Korea; they both support free trade; and they both view China’s rise with trepidation.
¿ª»çÀûÀ¸·Î ¼·Î »óÀÌÇϱä ÇÏÁö¸¸ Çѱ¹°ú ÀϺ»Àº ¸¹Àº Ç¥¸é»ó À¯»çÁ¡À» °øÀ¯ÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù. ¾ç±¹ ¸ðµÎ °æÁ¦ ´ë±¹ÀÌ¸ç ¿ªµ¿ÀûÀÎ ¹ÎÁÖÁÖÀÇ ±¹°¡ÀÌ´Ù. ÁöÁ¤ÇÐÀûÀ¸·Î ¾ç±¹Àº ¸ðµÎ ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ µ¿¸Í±¹À̸ç, ¾ç±¹ ¸ðµÎ ºñÇÙÈµÈ ºÏÇÑÀ» ¿øÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù. ¾ç±¹ ¸ðµÎ ÀÚÀ¯¹«¿ªÀ» ÁöÁöÇÏ°í ÀÖÀ¸¸ç Áß±¹¿¡ ºÒ¾È°¨À» ´À³¢°í ÀÖ´Ù.
South Korea and Japan signed a treaty in 1965 that normalized relations between the two countries and was supposed to settle most of the wartime issues.
Çѱ¹°ú ÀϺ»Àº 1965³â ¾ç±¹ °£ÀÇ °ü°è Á¤»óÈ¿Í Àü½Ã »ç¾ÈÀÇ ´ëºÎºÐÀ» ÇØ°áÇϱâ À§ÇÑ Á¶¾à¿¡ ¼¸íÇß´Ù.
Japan and South Korea’s foreign ministers met on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Wednesday to discuss the issue, but their meeting ended with statements that did not appear to resolve anything.
¼ö¿äÀÏ ÇÑÀÏ ¿Ü±³ºÎ Àå°üµéÀº ½ºÀ§½º ´Ùº¸½º¿¡¼ ¿¸° ¼¼°è°æÁ¦Æ÷·³¿¡¼ ±× ¹®Á¦¸¦ ³íÀÇÇϱâ À§ÇØ º°µµ·Î ȸµ¿ÇßÁö¸¸ ¹ßÇ¥¹®À» º¸¸é ¾Æ¹« °Íµµ ÇØ°áµÇÁö ¸øÇÑ µí º¸ÀδÙ.
Not with them at Davos was their shared treaty ally, the Untied States, which typically would help mediate the dispute. President Donald Trump canceled his trip to Davos to deal with the US government shutdown.
ÇÑÀÏ ¾ç±¹ÀÇ Á¶¾à µ¿¸Í±¹À¸·Î¼ º¸Åë ¾ç±¹ °£ ³íÀïÀ» ÁßÀçÇÏ´Â µ¥ µµ¿òÀ» ÁÖ°ï Çß´ø ¹Ì±¹Àº ´Ùº¸½º¿¡¼ ¾ç±¹°ú ÇÔ²²ÇÏÁö ¾Ê¾Ò´Ù. µµ³Îµå Æ®·³ÇÁ ´ëÅë·ÉÀº ¹Ì±¹ Á¤ºÎ ¼Ë´Ù¿îÀ» ÇØ°áÇϱâ À§ÇØ ´Ùº¸½º ¹æ¹®À» Ãë¼ÒÇß´Ù.
Some have accused the White House of not placing enough importance on alliance coordination and management. Former Defense Secretary James Mattis pointed to that as a key disagreement between himself and the President in his resignation letter.
¾î¶² À̵éÀº ¹é¾Ç°üÀÌ µ¿¸Í±¹ Á¶Á¤°ú °ü¸®¿¡ ÃæºÐÇÑ Á߿伺À» µÎÁö ¾Ê´Â´Ù°í ºñ³Çß´Ù. Á¦ÀÓ½º ¸ÅƼ½º Àü ±¹¹æÀå°üÀº »çÀÓ¼¿¡¼ ÀڽŰú ´ëÅë·É »çÀÌÀÇ Áß´ëÇÑ ÀÇ°ßÂ÷ÀÌ°¡ ÀÖÀ½À» ÁöÀûÇß´Ù.
“Our strength as a nation is inextricably linked to the strength of our unique and comprehensive system of alliances and partnerships,” Mattis wrote.
¸ÅƼ½º´Â “±¹°¡·Î¼ ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ ÈûÀº µ¿¸Í°ú Çù·ÂÀ̶ó´Â ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ µ¶Æ¯ÇÏ°í Æ÷°ýÀûÀÎ ½Ã½ºÅÛÀÇ °Á¡°ú ºÒ°¡ÇÇÇÏ°Ô ¿¬°üµÇ¾î ÀÖ´Ù”°í ½è´Ù.
“While the US remains the indispensable nation in the free world, we cannot protect our interests or serve that role effectively without maintaining strong alliances and showing respect to those allies.”
“¹Ì±¹Àº ÀÚÀ¯¼¼°è¿¡¼ ²À ÇÊ¿äÇÑ ±¹°¡·Î ³²¾Æ ÀÖ±ä ÇÏÁö¸¸, ¹Ì±¹ÀÌ °ÇÑ µ¿¸ÍÀ» À¯ÁöÇÏÁö ¸øÇÏ°í µ¿¸Í±¹À» Á¸ÁßÇÏÁö ¾Ê´Â´Ù¸é ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ ÀÌÀÍÀ» º¸È£Çϰųª ±× ¿ªÇÒÀ» È¿°úÀûÀ¸·Î ¼öÇàÇÒ ¼ö ¾ø´Ù.”
Analysts like Jackson, the former Defense Department official, worry that the current spat is a manifestation of declining US leadership, and will play into the hands of North Korea and China — two countries that have historically sought to diminish US influence in the region by causing rifts between Washington and its allies.
Àü ¹Ì ±¹¹æºÎ °ü·áÀÎ Àè½¼°ú °°Àº ºÐ¼®°¡µéÀº ÇöÀçÀÇ ºÐÀïÀÌ ¹Ì±¹ ¸®´õ½±ÀÇ ¼èÅðÀÇ Â¡ÈÄÀ̸ç, ¹Ì±¹°ú µ¿¸Í±¹µé »çÀÌÀÇ ºÒȸ¦ ¾ß±âÇÔÀ¸·Î½á ¿ª»çÀûÀ¸·Î ±× Áö¿ª¿¡¼ÀÇ ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ ¿µÇâ·ÂÀ» °¨¼Ò½ÃÅ°·Á°í ½ÃµµÇØ¿Â ºÏÇÑ°ú Áß±¹ÀÇ ¼Õ¿¡ ¹Ì±¹ÀÌ ³î¾Æ³ª°Ô µÉ °ÍÀ» ¿ì·ÁÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù.
“What we’re seeing lately is a return to history in some sense — the two countries never fully reconciled when they normalized relations in 1965, and put a lot of conflicts of interest on the back burner in the name of cooperation with the US,” Jackson said.
Àè½¼Àº “¾î¶² ¸é¿¡¼ ÃÖ±Ù¿¡ ¿ì¸®°¡ ¸ñ°ÝÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Â °ÍÀº ¿ª»ç·ÎÀÇ È¸±ÍÀÌ´Ù. ÇÑÀÏ ¾ç±¹Àº 1965³â¿¡ °ü°è¸¦ Á¤»óÈÇßÀ» ´ç½Ã °áÄÚ ¿ÏÀüÈ÷ ÈÇØÇÏÁö ¾Ê¾Ò°í ¹Ì±¹°úÀÇ Çù·ÂÀ̶ó´Â ¸íºÐ ÇÏ¿¡ ¸¹Àº ÀÌÇØ Ãæµ¹À» Àá½Ã º¸·ùÇßÀ» »Ó”À̶ó°í ¸»Çß´Ù.
“If something doesn’t change, I expect some kind of serious crisis to break out at some point, unfortunately.”
“¹º°¡ ¹Ù²îÁö ¾Ê´Â´Ù¸é, ºÒÇàÇÏ°Ôµµ ¾ðÁ¨°¡´Â ½É°¢ÇÑ À§±â°¡ ¹ß»ýÇÒ °ÍÀ̶ó°í º»´Ù.”
CNN’s Jake Kwon in Seoul and Yoko Wakatsuki in Tokyo contributed to this report
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