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Pence: The United States is ready to talk with North Korea
Æ潺: ¹Ì±¹Àº ºÏÇÑ°ú ´ëÈÇÒ Áغñ°¡ µÇ¾î ÀÖ´Ù
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¡ã Vice President Mike Pence. (Woohae Cho/Getty Images) ¸¶ÀÌÅ© Æ潺 ºÎÅë·É |
By Josh Rogin Global Opinions February 11 at 6:59 PM
Despite the mutual chilliness between U.S. and North Korean officials in South Korea last week, behind the scenes real progress was made toward a new diplomatic opening that could result in direct talks without preconditions between Washington and Pyongyang. This window of opportunity was born out of a new understanding reached between the White House and the president of South Korea.
Áö³ ÁÖ Çѱ¹¿¡¼ º¸ÀÎ ºÏÇÑ°ú ¹Ì±¹ ´ç±¹ÀÚµé °£ÀÇ ³Ã·©ÇÔ¿¡µµ ºÒ±¸ÇÏ°í ¹Ì±¹°ú ºÏÇÑ °£¿¡ ¾Æ¹«·± ÀüÁ¦ Á¶°Ç ¾øÀÌ Á÷Á¢ ´ëÈ°¡ °¡´ÉÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Â »õ·Î¿î ¿Ü±³Àû ¼¸·À» ÇâÇÑ ÁøÁ¤ÇÑ ¹ßÀüÀÌ ±× µÚ¿¡¼ Àü°³µÇ¾ú´Ù. ÀÌ ±âȸ´Â ¹é¾Ç°ü°ú Çѱ¹ ¹®ÀçÀÎ ´ëÅë·ÉÀÌ µµ´ÞÇÑ »õ·Î¿î ÀÌÇØ¿¡¼ ŵ¿µÇ¾ú´Ù.
Vice President Pence, in an interview aboard Air Force Two on the way home from the Winter Olympics in PyeongChang, told me that in his two substantive conversations with South Korean President Moon Jae-in during his trip, the United States and South Korea agreed on terms for further engagement with North Korea — first by the South Koreans and potentially with the United States soon thereafter.
Æòâ µ¿°è¿Ã¸²ÇÈÀ» °ü¶÷ÇÏ°í ±Í±¹ÇÏ´Â ¿¡¾îÆ÷½º2 ±â³» ȸ°ß¿¡¼ Æ潺 ºÎÅë·ÉÀº ¹æ¹® ±â°£ µ¿¾È Çѱ¹ ¹®ÀçÀÎ ´ëÅë·É°ú µÎ ¹øÀÇ ¿¬ÀÌÀº ȸ´ã¿¡¼ ¹Ì±¹°ú Çѱ¹ Á¤ºÎ°¡ ºÏÇÑ°úÀÇ ´õ ¸¹Àº ±³·ù-óÀ½¿¡´Â Çѱ¹Àεé°ú ±×¸®°í °ð ÀÌ¾î¼ ÀáÁ¤ÀûÀ¸·Î ¹Ì±¹°úµµ-¸¦ °¡Áö´Â °Í¿¡ ÇÕÀÇÇß´Ù°í ÇÊÀÚ¿¡°Ô ÀüÇß´Ù.
The frame for the still-nascent diplomatic path forward is this: The United States and its allies will not stop imposing steep and escalating costs on the Kim Jong Un regime until it takes clear steps toward denuclearization. But the Trump administration is now willing to sit down and talk with the regime while that pressure campaign is ongoing.
¾ÆÁ÷Àº Ãʱ⠴ܰ迡 ºÒ°úÇÑ, À̸¦ ÇâÇÑ ¿Ü±³Àû °æ·ÎÀÇ Æ²Àº ´ÙÀ½°ú °°´Ù: ¹Ì±¹°ú µ¿¸Í±¹µéÀº ±èÁ¤Àº Á¤±ÇÀÌ ºñÇÙȸ¦ À§ÇÑ ¸íÈ®ÇÑ Á¶Ä¡¸¦ ÃëÇÒ ¶§±îÁö ±èÁ¤Àº Á¤±Ç¿¡ ºñ½Î°í Á¡Á¡ °¡ÁߵǴ ºñ¿ëÀ» ºÎ°úÇÏ´Â ÀÏÀ» ¸ØÃßÁö ¾ÊÀ» °ÍÀÌ´Ù. ±×·¯³ª ÀÌÁ¦ Æ®·³ÇÁ ÇàÁ¤ºÎ´Â ±×·¯ÇÑ ¾Ð·ÂÀÌ ÁøÇàµÇ´Â µ¿¾È ±èÁ¤Àº Á¤±Ç°ú ±â²¨ÀÌ ¸¶ÁÖ ¾É¾Æ ´ëȸ¦ ³ª´©·Á ÇÑ´Ù.
Pence called it “maximum pressure and engagement at the same time.” That’s an important change from the previous U.S. position, which was to build maximum pressure until Pyongyang made real concessions and only then to engage directly with the regime.
Æ潺 ºÎÅë·ÉÀº À̸¦ “ÃÖ´ë ¾Ð¹Ú°ú ´ëȸ¦ µ¿½Ã¿¡”¶ó°í ¸»Çß´Ù. ±×°ÍÀº ÀÌÀü ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ ÀÔÀå¿¡ ÀÖ¾î Áß¿äÇÑ º¯È·Î¼, ºÏÇÑÀÌ ÁøÁ¤À¸·Î ±¼º¹ÇÒ ¶§±îÁö ÃÖ´ë ¾Ð¹ÚÀ» °¡ÇÏ°í ±× ÈÄ¿¡¾ß ±èÁ¤Àº Á¤±Ç°ú Á÷Á¢ ´ëÈ¿¡ ³ª¼±´Ù´Â °ÍÀÌ ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ ±âÁ¸ ÀÔÀåÀ̾ú´Ù.
“The point is, no pressure comes off until they are actually doing something that the alliance believes represents a meaningful step toward denuclearization,” Pence said. “So the maximum pressure campaign is going to continue and intensify. But if you want to talk, we’ll talk.”
Æ潺 ºÎÅë·ÉÀº “ºñÇÙȸ¦ ÇâÇÑ ÀÇ¹Ì ÀÖ´Â Á¶Ä¡¶ó°í µ¿¸Í±¹ÀÌ ¹ÏÀ» ¸¸ÇÑ ±×·± ÀÏÀ» ºÏÇÑÀÌ ½ÇÁ¦·Î ÇÒ ¶§±îÁö ¾Ð¹ÚÀ» ¿ÏÈÇÏÁö ¾Ê´Â´Ù´Â °ÍÀÌ ÇٽɔÀ̶ó¸ç, “±×·¡¼ ÃÖ´ë ¾Ð¹Ú Àü·«Àº °è¼ÓµÉ °ÍÀÌ¸ç ´õ °ÈµÉ °ÍÀÌ´Ù. ±×·¯³ª ±×ÂÊ¿¡¼ ´ëȸ¦ ¿øÇÏ¸é ¿ì¸®´Â ´ëȸ¦ ÇÒ °ÍÀÌ´Ù”¶ó°í ¸»Çß´Ù.
Pence and Moon worked this out during their bilateral meeting Thursday at the Blue House and their joint viewing of speedskating heats in PyeongChang on Saturday evening. Pence conferred with President Trump every day he was in Asia. Before these meetings, the Trump and Moon administrations were not aligned on whether Seoul’s new engagement with Pyongyang should continue after the Olympics end.
Æ潺 ºÎÅë·É°ú ¹® ´ëÅë·ÉÀº û¿Í´ë¿¡¼ ¸ñ¿äÀÏ ¾çÀÚ È¸µ¿À» Çϸç, ±×¸®°í Åä¿äÀÏ Àú³á Æòâ¿¡¼ ½ºÇǵ彺ÄÉÀÌÆÃÀ» ÇÔ²² °ü¶÷Çϸç ÀÌ·¯ÇÑ Àü·«À» ¼¼¿ü´Ù. Æ潺 ºÎÅë·ÉÀº ¾Æ½Ã¾Æ ¹æ¹®±â°£ µ¿¾È ¸ÅÀÏ Æ®·³ÇÁ ´ëÅë·É°ú ÀdzíÇß´Ù. µÎ ¹øÀÇ È¸µ¿ÀÌ ÀÖ±â Àü¿¡ Æ®·³ÇÁ ÇàÁ¤ºÎ¿Í ¹®ÀçÀÎ Á¤ºÎ´Â ºÏÇÑ°ú Çѱ¹ÀÇ »õ·Î¿î ´ëÈ°¡ ¿Ã¸²ÇÈÀÌ ³¡³ ÈÄ¿¡µµ °è¼ÓµÇ¾î¾ß ÇÒ °ÍÀÎÁö¿¡ ´ëÇؼ´Â ÀÇ°ßÀÌ ÀÏÄ¡ÇÏÁö ¾Ê¾Ò´Ù.
That dissonance showed just before their first meeting, when Moon said he wanted Olympic engagement to lead to real negotiations while Pence talked only about the pressure track. But inside the meeting, there was a breakthrough. Pence told Moon the international community must not repeat the mistakes of the past by giving North Korea concessions in exchange for talking. Pence asked Moon for his idea of how this engagement could be different.
ù ȸ´ãÀ» °¡Áö±â ¹Ù·Î Àü, ¹® ´ëÅë·ÉÀº ¿Ã¸²ÇÈ Âü¿©°¡ ÁøÁ¤ÇÑ Çù»óÀ¸·Î Àü°³µÇ±â¸¦ ¹Ù¶õ´Ù°í ¸»ÇÑ ¹Ý¸é Æ潺 ºÎÅë·ÉÀº ¾Ð¹Ú Àü·«¿¡ ´ëÇؼ¸¸ À̾߱âÇÏ¸ç ±× ºÒÀÏÄ¡°¡ µå·¯³µ´Ù. ±×·¯³ª ȸÀÇ°¡ ÁøÇàµÇ¸é¼ µ¹Æı¸°¡ »ý°å´Ù. Æ潺 ºÎÅë·ÉÀº ¹®ÀçÀÎ ´ëÅë·É¿¡°Ô ±¹Á¦»çȸ´Â ´ëȸ¦ ´ë°¡·Î ºÏÇÑ¿¡°Ô ¾çº¸ÇÔÀ¸·Î½á °ú°ÅÀÇ ½Ç¼ö¸¦ µÇÇ®ÀÌÇؼ´Â ¾È µÈ´Ù°í ¸»Çß´Ù. Æ潺 ºÎÅë·ÉÀº ¹® ´ëÅë·É¿¡°Ô À̹ø ´ëÈ°¡ ¾î¶»°Ô ´Ù¸¦ ¼ö ÀÖÀ»Áö¿¡ ´ëÇØ ¹® ´ëÅë·ÉÀÇ ÀÇ°ßÀ» ±¸Çß´Ù.
Moon assured Pence he would tell the North Koreans clearly that they would not get economic or diplomatic benefits for just talking — only for taking concrete steps toward denuclearization. Based on that assurance, Pence felt confident he could endorse post-Olympic engagement with Pyongyang.
¹® ´ëÅë·ÉÀº ´ÜÁö ´ëȸ¦ ÇÏ´Â °ÍÀ¸·Î ºÏÇÑÀÌ °æÁ¦Àû ¿Ü±³Àû ÀÌÀÍÀ» ¾òÁö ¸øÇÒ °ÍÀÌ°í ºñÇÙȸ¦ ÇâÇÑ ±¸Ã¼ÀûÀÎ Á¶Ä¡¸¦ ÃëÇÒ °æ¿ì¿¡¸¸ ÀÌ·± ÀÌÀÍÀ» ¾òÀ» ¼ö ÀÖÀ½À» ºÏÇÑ¿¡ ºÐ¸íÈ÷ ¸»ÇÏ°Ú´Ù°í Æ潺 ºÎÅë·É¿¡°Ô È®¾ðÇß´Ù. ±× È®¾ðÀ» ¹ÙÅÁÀ¸·Î Æ潺 ºÎÅë·ÉÀº ºÏÇÑ°ú ¿Ã¸²ÇÈ ÀÌÈÄ ´ëÈ ±³·ù¸¦ ÀÚ½ÅÀÌ ÁöÁöÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù°í ¹Ï°Ô µÇ¾ú´Ù.
“I think it is different from the last 20 years,” Pence said. I asked him what exact steps Pyongyang would have to take to get real sanctions relief. “I don’t know,” he said. “That’s why you have to have talks.”
Æ潺 ºÎÅë·ÉÀº “À̹øÀº Áö³ 20³â°ú´Â ´Ù¸£´Ù°í »ý°¢ÇÑ´Ù”°í ¸»Çß´Ù. ÇÊÀÚ´Â Æ潺 ºÎÅë·É¿¡°Ô ½ÇÁ¦ Á¦ÀçµéÀ» Ç®±â À§ÇØ ºÏÇÑÀÌ ÃëÇØ¾ß ÇÏ´Â Á¤È®ÇÑ Á¶Ä¡µéÀÌ ¹«¾ùÀÎÁö ¹°¾î º¸¾Ò´Ù. ±×´Â “¸ð¸¥´Ù”¸ç, “¹Ù·Î ±×°ÍÀÌ ´ëȸ¦ ÇØ¾ß ÇÏ´Â ÀÌÀ¯ÀÌ´Ù”¶ó°í ¸»Çß´Ù.
The initial move the United States wants is for North Korea to put denuclearization on the table and take steps toward it, though that is not a condition for preliminary talks. That may be a bridge too far for the Kim regime, which is adamant that the international community accept its nuclear status. Pyongyang is also sure to want concessions from Washington, such as a delay in U.S.-South Korean military exercises, a non-starter for the alliance.
¹Ì±¹ÀÌ ¿øÇÏ´Â Ãʱâ Á¶Ä¡´Â ºÏÇÑÀÌ ºñÇÙȸ¦ Çù»ó Å×ÀÌºí¿¡ ¿Ã·Á³õ°í ºñÇÙȸ¦ ÇâÇÑ Á¶Ä¡¸¦ ÃëÇÏ´Â °ÍÀ̱ä ÇÏÁö¸¸ ±×°ÍÀÌ ¿¹ºñȸ´ãÀÇ Á¶°ÇÀº ¾Æ´Ï´Ù. ±×°ÍÀº ±¹Á¦»çȸ°¡ ºÏÇÑÀÇ ÇÙ ÁöÀ§¸¦ ÀÎÁ¤ÇØ¾ß ÇÑ´Ù°í ´ÜÈ£ÇÏ°Ô ÁÖÀåÇÏ´Â °¨Á¤Àº Á¤±ÇÀ¸·Î¼´Â Áö³ªÄ¡°Ô ¸Õ °¸ÀÏ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù. ºÏÇÑ ¿ª½Ã ¹Ì±¹À¸·ÎºÎÅÍ ¾î´À Á¤µµ ¾çº¸, °¡·É ÇÑ¹Ì µ¿¸ÍÀ¸·Î¼± Àç°íÀÇ °¡Ä¡µµ ¾ø´Â Çѹ̿¬ÇÕÈÆ·ÃÀÇ ¿¬±â µîÀ» ¿øÇÒ °ÍÀÌ´Ù.
There are other spoilers that could torpedo the new opening. In Tokyo, Pence announced new sanctions on North Korea that he promised would be the toughest ever, due to be unveiled soon. In response, the Kim regime may resume testing its nuclear and missile programs, as it has done after past Olympic detentes. That would halt the diplomatic progress in its tracks.
»õ·Î¿î ¼¸·À» ¸Á°¡Æ®¸± ¼ö ÀÖ´Â ´Ù¸¥ Àå¾Ö¹°µéµµ ÀÖ´Ù. µµÄì¿¡¼ Æ潺 ºÎÅë·ÉÀº ºÏ¿¡ ´ëÇØ ¿©Áö²¯ °¡Àå °·ÂÇÒ °ÍÀ̶ó°í ½Ã»çÇÑ ¹Ù ÀÖ´ø »õ·Î¿î Á¦Àç°¡ °ð °ø°³µÉ °ÍÀ̶ó°í ¹ßÇ¥Çß´Ù. ÀÌ¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ´ëÀÀÀ¸·Î ±èÁ¤Àº Á¤±ÇÀº °ú°Å ¿Ã¸²ÇÈ ±â°£ µ¿¾ÈÀÇ ±äÀå ¿ÏÈ ÀÌÈÄ ±×·¨´ø °Íó·³ ÇÙ ¹× ¹Ì»çÀÏ ½ÇÇè ¹ß»ç¸¦ Àç°³ÇÒ ¼öµµ ÀÖ´Ù. ±×°ÍÀº ÁøÇàÁßÀÎ ¿Ü±³Àû ÁøÀüÀ» ÁߴܽÃų °ÍÀÌ´Ù.
Moon is working hard to prevent that from happening. He is entertaining a North Korean offer to visit Pyongyang. He is also urging the North Koreans to sit down with the United States at the earliest opportunity.
¹® ´ëÅë·ÉÀº ±×·± ÀÏÀÌ ÀϾÁö ¾Êµµ·Ï ³ë·ÂÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù. ¹® ´ëÅë·ÉÀº Æò¾çÀ» ¹æ¹®ÇØ ´Þ¶ó´Â ºÏÇÑÀÇ Á¦¾ÈÀ» °í·ÁÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù. ¶ÇÇÑ ¹® ´ëÅë·ÉÀº °¡Àå ºü¸¥ ½ÃÀÏ ³»¿¡ ¹Ì±¹°ú ¸¶ÁÖ ¾ÉÀ¸¶ó°í ºÏÇÑ¿¡ ±ÇÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù.
“Moon told me at the skating rink that he told [the North Koreans], ‘You’ve got to talk to the Americans,’ ” Pence said.
Æ潺 ºÎÅë·ÉÀº “¹® ´ëÅë·ÉÀÌ [ºÏÇÑ ´ëÇ¥´Ü]¿¡°Ô ‘¹Ì±¹°ú ´ëȸ¦ ÇØ¾ß ÇÑ´Ù’°í Àü´ÞÇß´Ù°í ½ºÄÉÀÌÆ® °æ±âÀå¿¡¼ ³ª¿¡°Ô ¸»Çß´Ù”°í Çß´Ù.
The idea of “talks about talks” is not new. In fact, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has raised the idea multiple times. Trump himself has said he sees nothing wrong with talking with the North Koreans per se. Moving from that to substantive negotiations would still be extremely difficult. But to make any real progress, talking is the first necessary step.
“´ëÈ¿¡ °üÇØ ´ëÈÇÑ´Ù´Â °Í”Àº »õ·Î¿î ¾ÆÀ̵ð¾î°¡ ¾Æ´Ï´Ù. ·º½º Æ¿·¯½¼ ±¹¹«Àå°üÀº ±× ¾ÆÀ̵ð¾î¸¦ ¿©·¯ Â÷·Ê ÇÇ·ÂÇß´Ù. Æ®·³ÇÁ ´ëÅë·É Àڽŵµ ºÏÇÑ°úÀÇ ´ëÈ ±× ÀÚü´Â ÀüÇô À߸øµÈ °ÍÀ¸·Î º¸Áö ¾Ê´Â´Ù°í ¸»Çß´Ù. À̷κÎÅÍ ½ÇÁ¦ Çù»óÀ¸·Î ¿Å°Ü°¡´Â °ÍÀº ¿©ÀüÈ÷ ¸Å¿ì ¾î·Á¿î ÀÏÀÏ °ÍÀÌ´Ù. ±×·¯³ª ÁøÁ¤À¸·Î ¾ÕÀ¸·Î ³ª¾Æ°¡±â À§Çؼ ´ëÈ´Â ¹Ýµå½Ã ÇÊ¿äÇÑ Ã¹ ´Ü°èÀÌ´Ù.
The White House’s endorsement of the concept of initial talks without preconditions is hugely significant. It provides a real fix to the break between Washington and Seoul. It also increases the chances the United States and North Korea will soon begin a process that represents the best hope of preventing a devastating international conflict.
ÀüÁ¦ Á¶°Ç ¾ø´Â Ãʱ⠴ëÈÀÇ ¾ÆÀ̵ð¾î¸¦ ¹é¾Ç°üÀÌ ÁöÁöÇÏ´Â °ÍÀº ¸Å¿ì Áß¿äÇÏ´Ù. ÀÌ´Â ¹é¾Ç°ü°ú û¿Í´ë »çÀÌÀÇ ´ÜÀý¿¡ ÁøÁ¤ÇÑ ÇØ°áÃ¥À» Á¦°øÇÑ´Ù. ÀÌ´Â ¶ÇÇÑ ¹Ì±¹°ú ºÏÇÑÀÌ, ²ûÂïÇÑ ±¹Á¦»çȸ ºÐÀïÀ» ¸·°íÀÚ ÇÏ´Â ÃÖ¼±ÀÇ Èñ¸ÁÀ» º¸¿©ÁÙ ÇൿÀ» °³½ÃÇÒ °¡´É¼ºÀ» ´õ Å©°Ô ¸¸µç´Ù.
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