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Moon Jae-in stands for a portrait in Seoul, South Korea, on April 15, 2017. Adam Ferguson for
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TIME WORLD
The Negotiator
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TIME May 04, 2017
On the morning of Aug. 18, 1976, two American soldiers set off to trim a poplar tree in the Korean demilitarized zone (DMZ). The tree was obscuring the line of sight between U.N. and North Korean guard towers on the narrow strip of land that has separated the peninsula’s communist North from its capitalist South since an armistice effectively ended the 1950–53 Korean War. Both sides had approved the pruning, but North Korea sent soldiers to order the work to stop. Captain Arthur Bonifas and First Lieutenant Mark Barrett refused, and were promptly hacked to death with their own axes.
1976³â 8¿ù 18ÀÏ, µÎ ¸íÀÇ ¹Ì±ºÀº Çѱ¹ÀÇ ºñ¹«ÀåÁö´ë¿¡ ÀÖ´Â Æ÷Ç÷¯ ³ª¹«ÀÇ °¡Áö¸¦ Ä¡·¯ ³ª°¬´Ù. 1950³â¿¡¼ 53³â±îÁö À̾îÁø Çѱ¹ ÀüÀïÀ» »ç½Ç»ó Á¾½Ä½ÃŲ ÈÞÀüÇùÁ¤ ÀÌÈÄ Çѹݵµ ³» °ø»êÁÖÀÇÀÚ ºÏÇÑ°ú ÀÚº»ÁÖÀÇÀÚ ³²ÇÑÀ» °¥¶ó³õ°í ÀÖ´Â Á¼Àº ºñ¹«ÀåÁö´ë ¾È¿¡ ÀÖ´Â ÀÌ ³ª¹«´Â À¯¿£°ú ºÏÇÑ ±º ÃÊ¼Ò »çÀÌÀÇ ½Ã¾ß¸¦ °¡¸®°í ÀÖ¾ú´Ù. ³²ºÏ ¾çÃø ¸ðµÎ ³ª¹«ÀÇ °¡Áö¸¦ Ä¡´Â ÀÏ¿¡ µ¿ÀÇÇÏ¿´À¸³ª ºÏÇÑÀº º´»ç¸¦ º¸³» ÀÌ ÀÛ¾÷À» Áß´ÜÇ϶ó°í Áö½ÃÇß´Ù. ¾Æ¼ º¸´ÏÆĽº ´ëÀ§¿Í ¸¶Å© ¹è·¿ ÁßÀ§´Â À̸¦ °ÅºÎÇÏ¿´À¸¸ç °ð¹Ù·Î ÀڽŵéÀÌ °¡Áö°í ÀÖ´ø µµ³¢·Î »ìÇصǾú´Ù.
General Richard G. Stilwell, then commander of the U.N. Forces in South Korea, ordered the tree completely cut down as a symbolic act of resolve. Among the troops sent to help fell the tree was a young South Korean soldier named Moon Jae-in. Tensions were dangerously high, he says today. “If the North had tried to interfere, it could easily have triggered war.”
´ç½Ã ³²ÇÑ¿¡ ÁÖµÐÇÑ UN±º ÁöÈÖ°üÀ̾ú´ø ¸®Â÷µå G. ½ºÆ¿À£ À屺Àº ¹®Á¦ ÇØ°áÀÇ »ó¡À¸·Î¼ ³ª¹«¸¦ ¿ÏÀüÈ÷ º£µµ·Ï Áö½ÃÇÏ¿´´Ù. ³ª¹«¸¦ º£´Â ÀÛ¾÷À» À§ÇØ ÅõÀÔµÈ ±ºÀεé Áß¿¡´Â ¹®ÀçÀÎÀ̶ó´Â À̸§ÀÇ ÀþÀº Çѱ¹ ±ºÀεµ ÀÖ¾ú´Ù. ±äÀå °ü°è´Â À§ÇèÇÒ Á¤µµ·Î °íÁ¶µÇ¾ú´Ù°í ¹® È帴 ¿À´Ã³¯ ¸»ÇÑ´Ù. “ºÏÇÑ Ãø¿¡¼ ¹æÇØÇÏ·Á Çß´Ù¸é °ð¹Ù·Î ÀüÀïÀÌ ÀϾ ¼öµµ ÀÖ¾ú´Ù.”
War is again a possibility on the Korean Peninsula–and Moon may soon be once again at the front line. The former human-rights lawyer, 64, is the clear front runner for President in the upcoming May 9 election, called after the impeachment of President Park Geun-hye over a corruption scandal. South Korea has many problems, including the Asia-Pacific’s worst income inequality, rising youth unemployment and anemic growth. But the campaign has turned on how best to deal with North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un, who is locked in a standoff with new U.S. President Donald Trump over his country’s nuclear program. Kim unveiled a new generation of ballistic missiles at a glittering parade on April 15, and conducted the latest in a series of tests on April 29, just hours before a U.S. Navy strike group–an “armada,” as Trump put it–was due to arrive at the Korean Peninsula. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi has warned that “conflict could break out at any moment.”
Çѹݵµ¿¡¼´Â ¶Ç ´Ù½Ã ÀüÀïÀÌ ¹ß»ýÇÒ °¡´É¼ºÀÌ ÀÖÀ¸¸ç ¹®ÀçÀÎ È帴 °ð ¶Ç´Ù½Ã ÀüÀïÀÇ ÃÖÀü¹æ¿¡ ¼°Ô µÉ ¼öµµ ÀÖ´Ù. ÀüÁ÷ ÀαǺ¯È£»çÀÎ ¹® Èĺ¸(64¼¼)´Â ¹Ú±ÙÇý Àü ´ëÅë·ÉÀÌ ºÎÆÐ ½ºÄµµé·Î źÇÙµÈ ÈÄ ¿¸®°Ô µÈ 5¿ù 9ÀÏÀÇ ´ë¼±¿¡¼ ºÐ¸íÈ÷ °¡Àå À¯·ÂÇÑ Èĺ¸ÀÌ´Ù. Çѱ¹Àº ¾Æ½Ã¾Æ ÅÂÆò¾ç ±¹°¡¿¡¼ °¡Àå ½É°¢ÇÑ ¼Òµæ ºÒÆòµî, û³â ½Ç¾÷·ü ±ÞÁõ, Àú¼ºÀå µî°ú °°Àº ¸¹Àº ¹®Á¦¸¦ °¡Áö°í ÀÖ´Ù. ±×·¯³ª ¼±°Å ¿îµ¿¿¡¼ ÇöÀç ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ »õ·Î¿î ´ëÅë·ÉÀÎ µµ³Îµå Æ®·³ÇÁ ´ëÅë·É°ú ºÏÇÑÀÇ ÇÙ °³¹ß ¹®Á¦¸¦ µÎ°í ´ë¸³ÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Â ºÏÇÑÀÇ ÃÖ°í ÁöµµÀÚ ±èÁ¤ÀºÀ» °¡Àå Çö¸íÇÏ°Ô ´ëÇÏ´Â ¹æ¹ý¿¡ °ü½ÉÀÌ ¸ð¾ÆÁö°í ÀÖ´Ù. 4¿ù 15ÀÏ È·ÁÇÑ ±º»çÆÛ·¹À̵忡¼ ±èÁ¤ÀºÀº »õ·Î¿î ¼¼´ëÀÇ Åºµµ¹Ì»çÀÏÀ» ¼±º¸¿´°í, 4¿ù 29ÀÏ¿¡´Â ÀÏ·ÃÀÇ ¹Ì»çÀÏÀ» ½ÃÇè ¹ß»çÇßÀ¸¸ç, ±× ½Ã±â´Â Æ®·³ÇÁ°¡ ‘¹«ÀûÇÔ´ë’¶ó°í ÀÏÄ´ ¹Ì Çرº Ÿ°ÝÇÔ´ëÀÇ Çѹݵµ µµÂø ¿¹Á¤ ½ÃÁ¡À¸·ÎºÎÅÍ ºÒ°ú ¸î ½Ã°£ ÀüÀ̾ú´Ù. Áß±¹ ¿Ü¹«¼ºÀÇ ¿ÕÀ§ Àå°üÀº ‘¾ðÁ¦µçÁö Ãæµ¹ÀÌ ¹ß»ýÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù’°í °æ°íÇß´Ù.
So South Korea’s next President will inherit a deepening crisis with an irascible dictator on one side and a geopolitical neophyte on the other. But Moon, the center-left Democratic Party candidate who narrowly lost the presidency in 2012, believes it is his destiny to bring the two Koreas closer together after seven decades apart. “The North and South were one people sharing one language and one culture for about 5,000 years,” he says. “Ultimately, we should reunite.”
µû¶ó¼ Çѱ¹ÀÇ Â÷±â ´ëÅë·ÉÀº ¼º¹Ì ±ÞÇÑ ºÏÇÑ µ¶ÀçÀÚ¿Í ÁöÁ¤ÇÐÀû ½ÅÂüÀÎ ¹Ì±¹ ÁöµµÀÚ »çÀÌ¿¡ ½Éȵǰí ÀÖ´Â À§±â »óȲÀ» ÀÌ¾î ¹Þ°Ô µÉ °ÍÀÌ´Ù. ±×·¯³ª 2012³â ´ë¼±¿¡¼ ±Ù¼ÒÇÑ Ç¥ Â÷ÀÌ·Î ÆйèÇÑ, ÁßµµÁÂÆÄÀÎ ´õºÒ¾î¹ÎÁÖ´ç ¼Ò¼Ó ¹® È帴 Áö³ 70³â °£ ¼Ò¿øÇß´ø ³²ºÏÀ» ´õ¿í ±ä¹ÐÇÏ°Ô ¸¸µå´Â °ÍÀÌ ÀÚ½ÅÀÇ ÇÒ ÀÏÀ̶ó°í ¹Ï´Â´Ù. “³²ºÏÀº 5õ ³â °¡±îÀÌ ÇϳªÀÇ ¾ð¾î¿Í µ¿ÀÏÇÑ ¹®È¸¦ Áö³à ¿Â ÇÑ ¹ÎÁ·ÀÌ´Ù. ±Ã±ØÀûÀ¸·Î ¿ì¸®´Â ÅëÀÏÀ» ÇØ¾ß ÇÑ´Ù”°í ±×´Â ¸»Çß´Ù.
As a son of refugees from the North, Moon is determined to go his own way about it–tackling the Kim regime not by aggression but by measured engagement. The current cycle of antagonism helps no one, he says, least of all the long-suffering population of the Hermit Kingdom. “My father fled from the North, hating communism. I myself hate the communist North Korean system. That doesn’t mean I should let the people in the North suffer under an oppressive regime.”
ºÏÇÑ Çdz¹ÎÀÇ ¾ÆµéÀÎ ¹® È帴 ºÏÇÑ ¹®Á¦¸¦ ÀÚ½ÅÀÇ ¹æ½ÄÀ¸·Î ÇìÃijª°¥ »ý°¢À¸·Î ±èÁ¤Àº Á¤ºÎ¸¦ ¹«Àå°ø°ÝÀÌ ¾Æ´Ñ ½ÅÁßÇÑ Æ÷¿ëÁ¤Ã¥À» ÅëÇØ »ó´ëÇÏ·Á ÇÑ´Ù. ÇöÀçÀÇ ¹Ýº¹µÇ´Â Àû´ë°¨Àº ¾Æ¹«¿¡°Ôµµ µµ¿òÀÌ µÇÁö ¾ÊÀ¸¸ç ƯÈ÷ ¿À·§µ¿¾È °íÅëÀ» °Þ¾î¿Â ºÏÇÑ Áֹε鿡°Ô´Â ´õ¿í ±×·¯ÇÏ´Ù°í ¹® È帰¡ ¹àÇû´Ù. “³» ¾Æ¹öÁö´Â °ø»êÁÖÀÇ°¡ ½È¾î ºÏÇÑ¿¡¼ ÇdzÀ» ¿À¼Ì´Ù. ³» Àڽŵµ °ø»êÁÖÀÇÀû ºÏÇÑ Ã¼Á¦¸¦ ½È¾îÇÑ´Ù. ±×·¸´Ù°í Çؼ ¾ï¾ÐÀûÀÎ Á¤±Ç ÇÏ¿¡¼ ºÏÇÑ ÁֹεéÀÌ °íÅëÀ» ¹Þµµ·Ï ³»¹ö·ÁµÎ¾î¾ß ÇÑ´Ù´Â °ÍÀº ¾Æ´Ï´Ù.”
Moon was born in the shadow of war. His parents fled the North aboard a U.N. supply ship in December 1950 alongside thousands of other refugees. Moon was born on South Korea’s Geoje Island just over two years later. The postwar South had neither the heavy industry nor the fertile farmland of the then more prosperous North. “Poverty dictated my childhood,” he says now. “But there were benefits as well: I became independent, more mature than my peers, and I realized that money is not the most important thing in life.”
¹® È帴 ÀüÀï ¿ÍÁß¿¡ Ãâ»ýÇß´Ù. ¹® Èĺ¸ÀÇ ºÎ¸ð´Â 1950³â 12¿ù UNÀÇ º¸±Þ¼±À» Ÿ°í ´Ù¸¥ Çdz¹Î ¼öõ ¸í°ú ÇÔ²² ºÏÇÑÀ» ¶°³µ´Ù. ¹® È帴 ±×·ÎºÎÅÍ 2³â ÈÄ, Çѱ¹ÀÇ °ÅÁ¦µµ¶ó´Â °÷¿¡¼ Ãâ»ýÇÏ¿´´Ù. ÀüÀï ÀÌÈÄ Çѱ¹Àº ´ç½Ã dzÁ·ÇÑ ºÏÇÑÀÌ °¡Á³´ø Áß°ø¾÷µµ, ±×¸®°í ºñ¿ÁÇÑ ³óÅäµµ ¾ø¾ú´Ù. “³» ¾î¸° ½ÃÀýÀº ºó°ïÇß´Ù. ±×·¸Áö¸¸ ÀÌÁ¡µµ ÀÖ¾ú´Ù. ³ª´Â µ¶¸³½ÉÀ» Å°¿ü°í ³» ¶Ç·¡º¸´Ù ´õ ¼º¼÷ÇßÀ¸¸ç µ·ÀÌ Àλý¿¡¼ °¡Àå Áß¿äÇÑ °ÍÀÌ ¾Æ´Ï¶ó´Â »ç½Çµµ ±ú¿ìÃÆ´Ù”°í ±×´Â ÀÌÁ¦ ¸»ÇÑ´Ù.
By the time Moon entered adulthood, money had begun flowing into the South. The country experienced rapid economic growth from the 1960s on, driven by export-led tech, automotive and shipbuilding booms. Moon grew to prominence as a pro-democracy student activist, passing the state bar exam in 1980. Following a distinguished legal career, he was invited to join the administration of former President Roh Moo Hyun. Today, the economy he hopes to lead is the world’s 12th largest by GDP. In contrast, the North stagnated under a Soviet-style planned economy. Now, the nation of 25 million is one of the world’s poorest.
¹® È帰¡ ¼ºÀÎÀÌ µÇ¾úÀ» ¹«·Æ Çѱ¹¿¡ ÀÚº»ÀÌ À¯ÀԵDZ⠽ÃÀÛÇß´Ù. ¼öÃâ ÁÖµµÀÇ ±â¼ú »ê¾÷°ú ÀÚµ¿Â÷, Á¶¼±¾÷ µîÀÌ È£È²À» ¸ÂÀ¸¸ç Çѱ¹ °æÁ¦´Â 1960³â´ëºÎÅÍ ±Þ°ÝÈ÷ ¼ºÀåÇϱ⠽ÃÀÛÇß´Ù. ¹® È帴 ¹ÎÁÖÈ Çлý ¿îµ¿°¡·Î µÎµå·¯Á³°í 1980³â¿¡ »ç¹ý°í½Ã¿¡ ÇÕ°ÝÇß´Ù. ¸í¸Á ÀÖ´Â ¹ý·ü°¡·Î¼ °æ·ÂÀ» ½×Àº ÈÄ ±×´Â ³ë¹«Çö Àü ´ëÅë·ÉÀÇ Á¤ºÎ¿¡ ÇÕ·ùÇϵµ·Ï ÃÊ´ëµÇ¾ú´Ù. ¿À´Ã³¯, ¹® È帰¡ ÁÖµµÇϱ⸦ ¹Ù¶ó´Â Çѱ¹ÀÇ °æÁ¦´Â ¼¼°è GDP 12À§¸¦ ±â·ÏÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù. ¹Ý¸é, ºÏÇÑÀº ¼Ò·Ã½Ä °èȹ °æÁ¦ ÇÏ¿¡ Á¤Ã¼µÇ¾ú´Ù. Áö±Ý Àα¸ 2õ5¹é¸¸ÀÇ ºÏÇÑÀº ¼¼°è¿¡¼ °¡Àå °¡³ÇÑ ±¹°¡ Áß ÇϳªÀÌ´Ù.
Moon is aware that reunification would entail a colossal financial burden for the South. That’s why the first step in bringing the countries together must be economic cooperation, he says. He wants to allow South Korean firms access to cheap North Korean labor, and renew cultural exchanges across the DMZ. “Economic integration will not only benefit the North,” he says, “but also will give the South a new growth engine, which will revive the South Korean economy.”
¹® È帴 ÅëÀÏÀÌ ³²ÇÑ¿¡ ¸·´ëÇÑ °æÁ¦ÀûÀÎ ºÎ´ãÀ» ¾È°ÜÁÙ °ÍÀ̶ó´Â »ç½ÇÀ» ¾Ë°í ÀÖ´Ù. ÀÌ ¶§¹®¿¡ ³²ºÏÀ» ÇÑ µ¥ ¸ðÀ¸´Â ù ´Ü°è´Â °æÁ¦ Çù·ÂÀ̾î¾ß ÇÑ´Ù°í ¹® È帴 ÁÖÀåÇÑ´Ù. ¹® È帴 Çѱ¹ ±â¾÷µéÀÌ Àú·ÅÇÑ ºÏÇÑ ³ëµ¿·ÂÀ» ¾òÀ» ¼ö ÀÖµµ·Ï Çã¿ëÇÏ°í ºñ¹«ÀåÁö´ë¸¦ »çÀÌ¿¡ µÎ°í ³²ºÏ °£ ¹®È ±³·ù¸¦ Àç°³Çϱ⸦ ¿øÇÑ´Ù. “°æÁ¦ ÅëÇÕÀº ºÏÇÑ¿¡¸¸ À̵æÀÌ µÇ´Â °ÍÀÌ ¾Æ´Ï¸ç, ³²ÇÑ¿¡µµ »õ·Î¿î ¼ºÀå µ¿·ÂÀ» ÁÖ´Â °è±â°¡ µÇ¾î Çѱ¹ °æÁ¦µµ µÇ»ì¾Æ³¯ °ÍÀÌ´Ù”°í ¹® È帰¡ ¸»Çß´Ù.
But gradual reunification presents an existential as well as an economic challenge. Today’s DMZ does not just separate two unequal states–it divides the kitschy consumerism of a freewheeling South and the festering paranoia of a Stalinist North. Few pairs of states are so close yet so far apart–and even fewer have a rogue dictator, heavily armed, so intent on standing in the breach. The main challenge for any leader of the South will always be how to deal with Kim Jong Un.
±×·¯³ª Á¡ÁøÀûÀÎ ÅëÀÏÀº °æÁ¦ÀûÀÎ ¹®Á¦ »Ó ¾Æ´Ï¶ó ½ÇÁ¸ÀûÀÎ ¹®Á¦µµ Á¦±âÇÑ´Ù. ¿À´Ã³¯ÀÇ ºñ¹«ÀåÁö´ë´Â µ¿µîÇÏÁö ¾ÊÀº µÎ ±¹°¡¸¦ ºÐ¸®½ÃÅ°°í ÀÖ´Â °Í»Ó¸¸ ¾Æ´Ï¶ó, ÀÚÀ¯ºÐ¹æÇÏ°í õ¹ÚÇÑ ¼ÒºñÁÖÀÇÀÇ ³²ÇÑ°ú ½ºÅ»¸°ÁÖÀÇ ºÏÇÑÀÇ Áö°Ü¿î ÆíÁýÁõÀ» ³ª´©°í ÀÖ´Ù. ±×·¸°Ô °¡±õ°íµµ ¸Õ µÎ ³ª¶ó´Â ÀÌ ¼¼»ó¿¡ º°·Î ¾øÀ¸¸ç, °ø°ÝÇÒ ¸¸¹ÝÀÇ Å¼¼¸¦ °®Ãß°í Áß¹«ÀåÇÑ ±×·± ºÒÇÑ´ç °°Àº µ¶ÀçÀÚ´Â ´õ¿í ã±â Èûµé´Ù. Çѱ¹ÀÇ ¾î¶² ´ëÅë·É¿¡°Ôµµ ÁÖ¿ä µµÀüÀº ±èÁ¤ÀºÀ» ¾î¶»°Ô ´Ù·ê °ÍÀÎÁö°¡ µÉ °ÍÀÌ´Ù.
Relations between North and South aren’t merely bad; there are no relations. The last summit between Pyongyang and Seoul took place a decade ago, and even at the DMZ there has been no official dialogue since 2013–when U.N. forces want to communicate with their North Korean counterparts, they use a megaphone to bellow across the gap. For Moon, this is unacceptable. “Even if Kim is an irrational leader, we have to accept the reality that he rules North Korea,” he says. “So we have to talk with him.”
³²ºÏÇÑÀÇ °ü°è´Â ´Ü¼øÈ÷ ³ª»Û Á¤µµ°¡ ¾Æ´Ï¶ó ¾Æ¿¹ °ü°è°¡ ¾ø´Ù. ºÏÇÑ°ú Çѱ¹ÀÇ ¸¶Áö¸· Á¤»óȸ´ãÀº 10³â ÀüÀ̾úÀ¸¸ç, ½ÉÁö¾î ºñ¹«ÀåÁö´ë¿¡¼µµ 2013³â ÀÌÈÄ ¾Æ¹«·± °ø½ÄÀûÀÎ ´ëÈ°¡ ¾ø¾ú´Ù. À¯¿£»ç·ÉºÎ°¡ ºÏÃø°ú ´ëȸ¦ ÇÏ°í ½Í´Ù¸é ±×µéÀº È®¼º±â¸¦ »ç¿ëÇØ °Ç³ÊÆí¿¡ ¼Ò¸®¸¦ Áö¸¥´Ù. ¹® Èĺ¸¿¡°Ô ÀÌ´Â ¹Þ¾ÆµéÀÏ ¼ö ¾ø´Â ÀÏÀÌ´Ù. ¹® È帴 “¼³·É ±èÁ¤ÀºÀÌ ºñÀ̼ºÀûÀÎ ÁöµµÀÚ¶ó ÇÒÁö¶óµµ ¿ì¸®´Â ±×°¡ ºÏÇÑÀ» ÅëÄ¡ÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Â Çö½ÇÀ» ¹Þ¾Æµé¿©¾ß ÇÑ´Ù.”¸ç “±×·¡¼ ¿ì¸®´Â ±×¿Í ´ëȸ¦ Çؾ߸¸ ÇÑ´Ù.”¶ó°í ¸»ÇÑ´Ù.
There are some signs Kim has begun to relax his grip. Although dissent is still ruthlessly quashed, he has permitted a free market to take root, and the much maligned state distribution bureaus–once responsible for doling out all provisions–are shuttered. New buildings spring up constantly in Pyongyang, where flatscreen TVs and karaoke machines are common, and locals now talk of a “rush hour.” In his New Year speech in 2015, Kim Jong Un even said he was open to talks with the South. The sticking point, as ever, is the nuclear issue. Aware of his fragile leverage, Kim has repeatedly said that the country’s nuclear weapons are “nonnegotiable.” For Moon, talks would be worthwhile only with “a guarantee that there would be visible results such as freezing or dismantlement of [the] nuclear weapons program.”
±èÁ¤ÀºÀÌ ÀÚ½ÅÀÇ Áö¹è·ÂÀ» ¿ÏȽÃÅ°±â ½ÃÀÛÇß´Ù´Â ¸î °¡Áö ¡ÈĵéÀÌ ÀÖ´Ù. ºñ·Ï ¹Ý´ë ÀÇ°ßÀº ¿©ÀüÈ÷ ¹«ÀÚºñÇÏ°Ô Áø¾ÐµÇÁö¸¸ ±×´Â ÀÚÀ¯½ÃÀåÀÌ »Ñ¸®³»¸®µµ·Ï Çã¿ëÇØ¿ÔÀ¸¸ç ÇÑ ¶§ ¸ðµç ¹è±ÞÀ» Ã¥ÀÓÁö°í ÀÖ¾úÀ¸¸ç ¸¹Àº ºñ³À» ¹Þ¾Ò´ø ±¹¿µ¹è±Þ¼Ò´Â Æó¼âµÇ¾ú´Ù. Æò¾ç¿¡´Â »õ·Î¿î °Ç¹°µéÀÌ ²÷ÀÓ¾øÀÌ µé¾î¼°í ÀÖ°í Æò¸éTV¿Í °¡¶ó¿ÀÄÉ´Â ÀϹÝÀûÀ̸ç Æò¾ç ½Ã¹ÎµéÀº ÀÌÁ¦ “·¯½¬ ¾Æ¿ì¾î”¿¡ ´ëÇØ À̾߱⵵ ÇÑ´Ù. 2015³â ½Å³â»ç¿¡¼ ±èÁ¤ÀºÀº ½ÉÁö¾î Çѱ¹°ú ´ëÈÇÒ ÀÇÇâÀÌ ÀÖ´Ù°í ¸»Çß´Ù. ³Á¦´Â ¾ðÁ¦³ªÃ³·³ ÇÙ ¹®Á¦ÀÌ´Ù. ÀÚ½ÅÀÇ ¾àÇÑ ¿µÇâ·ÂÀ» ¾Ë°í Àֱ⿡ ±èÁ¤ÀºÀº ºÏÇÑÀÇ ÇÙ ¹«±â´Â “Çù»ó ´ë»óÀÌ ¾Æ´Ï´Ù”¶ó°í ¿©·¯ Â÷·Ê ¸»Çß´Ù. ¹® Èĺ¸¿¡°Ô ´ëÈ´Â “ÇÙ¹«±â ÇÁ·Î±×·¥ÀÇ µ¿°á ȤÀº ÇØü¿Í °°Àº °¡½ÃÀûÀÎ °á°ú°¡ ÀÖÀ» °ÍÀ̶ó´Â º¸Àå”ÀÌ ÀÖÀ» °æ¿ì¿¡¸¸ °¡Ä¡°¡ ÀÖÀ» °ÍÀÌ´Ù.
Moon has seen these kinds of negotiations in action before and believes they can work again. As chief of staff to Roh, he helped engineer the South Korean President’s historic summit with Kim’s father Kim Jong Il in 2007, and the six-party denuclearization talks between North and South Korea, the U.S., China, Russia and Japan, which ran from 2003 to 2009. A satellite launch by Pyongyang ended the talks, and critics say the $4.5 billion of aid funneled to the regime during the “sunshine policy” of engagement actually accelerated the weapons program. Moon, however, points to the Sept. 19, 2005, Joint Declaration–encompassing full dismantlement of North Korean nuclear weapons, a peace treaty and even normalized relations with the U.S.–as evidence the sunshine policy was better than the following decade of isolation and censure. “The North even blew up the cooling tower of its nuclear reactor,” he says. “The same step-by-step approach is still workable.”
¹® È帴 ¿¹Àü¿¡ ÀÌ·¯ÇÑ Á¾·ùÀÇ Çù»óµéÀ» ÀÌ·ç¾îÁö´Â °ÍÀ» º» ÀûÀÌ ÀÖ°í ´Ù½Ã ±×·¸°Ô ÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù°í ¹Ï´Â´Ù. ³ë¹«Çö ´ëÅë·ÉÀÇ ºñ¼½ÇÀåÀ¸·Î¼ ¹® È帴 ±èÁ¤ÀºÀÇ ¾Æ¹öÁö ±èÁ¤ÀÏ°ú 2007³â Çѱ¹ ´ëÅë·ÉÀÇ ¿ª»çÀûÀÎ Á¤»óȸ´ã°ú 2003³âºÎÅÍ 2008³â±îÁö ³²ºÏÇÑ, ¹Ì±¹, Áß±¹, ·¯½Ã¾Æ¿Í ÀϺ»ÀÌ Âü°¡ÇÏ´Â ºñÇÙÈ 6ÀÚ È¸´ã ÃßÁøÀ» µµ¿Ô´Ù. ºÏÇÑÀÇ ÀΰøÀ§¼º ¹ß»ç·Î ÀÎÇØ ±× ȸ´ãÀº ³¡ÀÌ ³µ°í, ºñÆò°¡µéÀº “ÇÞºµÁ¤Ã¥” ±â°£ µ¿¾È ºÏÇÑ Á¤±ÇÀ¸·Î Èê·¯ µé¾î°£ 45¾ï ´Þ·¯°¡ »ç½Ç»ó ¹«±â ÇÁ·Î±×·¥À» °¡¼ÓȽÃÄ×´Ù°í ¸»ÇÑ´Ù. ±×·¯³ª ¹® È帴 ºÏÇÑ ÇÙ¹«±âÀÇ ¿ÏÀüÇÑ ÇØü, ÆòÈÇùÁ¤ ¹× ¹Ì±¹°úÀÇ °ü°è Á¤»óȸ¦ ¸Á¶óÇÏ´Â 2005³â 9¿ù 19ÀÏ °øµ¿¼±¾ð¹®À» Áö¸ñÇϸç À̸¦ ÇÞºµÁ¤Ã¥ÀÌ ±× ÈÄ À̾îÁø 10³âÀÇ °í¸³°ú ºñ³º¸´Ù ³ª¾Ò´Ù´Â Áõ°Å·Î Á¦½ÃÇÑ´Ù. ¹® È帴 “½ÉÁö¾î ºÏÇÑÀº ºÏÇÑÀÇ ÇÙ ¿øÀÚ·ÎÀÇ ³Ã°¢ žÀ» ÆøÆÄÇϱâ±îÁö Çß´Ù”¸ç, “±×·¯ÇÑ ´Ü°èÀû Á¢±Ù¹æ½ÄÀÌ ¿©ÀüÈ÷ ½ÇÈ¿¼ºÀÌ ÀÖ´Ù”¶ó°í ±×´Â ¸»ÇÑ´Ù.
Given Trump’s stated disdain for the nuclear deal the U.S. helped fashion with Iran, it’s hard to imagine he would be eager to pursue a similar agreement with the Kim regime, which has a track record of noncompliance. But Moon says he and Trump already agree that the Obama Administration’s approach of “strategic patience” with North Korea was a failure. Surely the U.S. President could be persuaded to take a different tack, he says. “I recall him once saying that he can talk with Kim Jong Un over a hamburger.” Trump, he adds, is above all a pragmatist. “In that sense, I believe we will be able to share more ideas, talk better and reach agreements without difficulty.” Indeed, on May 1, Trump told Bloomberg that he “would be honored” to meet Kim.
¹Ì±¹ÀÌ À̶õÀ» µµ¿Ô´ø ÇÙ °Å·¡¿¡ ´ëÇÑ Æ®·³ÇÁÀÇ °ø°³ÀûÀÎ °æ¸ê°¨À» °¨¾ÈÇÒ ¶§, ±×°¡ ½±°Ô ¾çº¸ÇÏÁö ¾Ê´Â Àü·ÂÀ» º¸¿©¿Â ±èÁ¤Àº Á¤±Ç°ú ºñ½ÁÇÑ ÇùÁ¤À» Ãß±¸ÇÒ °ÍÀ̶ó´Â °ÍÀº »ó»óÇϱ⠾î·Æ´Ù. ±×·¯³ª ¹®ÀçÀÎÀº ÀڽŰú Æ®·³ÇÁ ´ëÅë·ÉÀº ¿À¹Ù¸¶ ÇàÁ¤ºÎÀÇ ºÏÇÑ¿¡ ´ëÇÑ “Àü·«Àû Àγ»”¶ó´Â Á¢±Ù¹æ½ÄÀÌ ½ÇÆÐÇß´Ù´Â Á¡¿¡ ÀÌ¹Ì µ¿ÀÇÇÏ°í ÀÖÀ½À» ¸»ÇÑ´Ù. ºÐ¸í Æ®·³ÇÁ ´ëÅë·ÉÀÌ ´Ù¸¥ ¹æħÀ» ÃëÇϵµ·Ï ¼³µæÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖÀ» °ÍÀ̶ó°í ¹® È帴 ¸»ÇÑ´Ù. ¹® È帴 “³ª´Â Æ®·³ÇÁ ´ëÅë·ÉÀÌ ÇÑ ¹øÀº Çܹö°Å¸¦ ¸ÔÀ¸¸ç ±èÁ¤Àº°ú À̾߱⸦ ³ª´ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù°í ¸»ÇÑ °ÍÀ» ±â¾ïÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù.” ¹® Èĺ¸´Â Æ®·³ÇÁ ´ëÅë·Éµµ ¹«¾ùº¸´Ù ½Ç¿ëÁÖÀÇÀÚ¶ó°í µ¡ºÙÀδÙ. “±×·± ¸é¿¡¼ ³ª´Â ¿ì¸®°¡ ´õ ¸¹Àº »ý°¢À» °øÀ¯ÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ°í, ´õ ³ªÀº ´ëȸ¦ ³ª´ ¼ö ÀÖÀ¸¸ç ¾î·Á¿ò ¾øÀÌ ÇÕÀÇÁ¡¿¡ µµ´ÞÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖÀ» °ÍÀ̶ó°í ¹Ï´Â´Ù.” ½ÇÁ¦·Î 5¿ù 1ÀÏ Æ®·³ÇÁ ´ëÅë·ÉÀº ºí·ë¹ö±×¿ÍÀÇ ÀÎÅͺ信¼ ±èÁ¤Àº°ú ¸¸³ª´Â °ÍÀÌ “¿µ±¤”ÀÏ °ÍÀ̶ó°í ¸»Çß´Ù.
There are few safe alternatives. Trump is currently pressuring China, responsible for 90% of North Korean trade, to turn the screws on Pyongyang and take steps against Chinese businesses and banks doing deals with North Korea. “China has great influence over North Korea,” he has said. Perhaps, but the relationship today is steeped in mistrust. Beijing has signed up to unprecedented U.N. sanctions, banning imports of coal for the rest of the year. There is room for Beijing to do more: suspending the 500,000 tons of crude oil it sends to North Korea annually, for example, was what brought Kim Jong Il to the six-party talks in 2003.
¾ÈÀüÇÑ ´ë¾ÈÃ¥Àº º°·Î ¾ø´Ù. Æ®·³ÇÁ ´ëÅë·ÉÀº ÇöÀç ºÏÇÑ ¹«¿ªÀÇ 90%¸¦ Â÷ÁöÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Â Áß±¹À» ¾Ð¹ÚÇÏ¿© ºÏÇÑ¿¡ Ãß°¡ÀûÀÎ ¾Ð·ÂÀ» °¡ÇÏ°í ºÏÇÑ°ú °Å·¡ÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Â Áß±¹ ±â¾÷µé°ú ÀºÇà¿¡ ´ëÇØ Á¶Ä¡¸¦ ÃëÇϵµ·Ï ÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù. Æ®·³ÇÁ´Â “Áß±¹Àº ºÏÇÑ¿¡ Áö´ëÇÑ ¿µÇâ·ÂÀ» ¹ÌÄ¡°í ÀÖ´Ù”°í ¸»Çß´Ù. ±×·¯³ª ¾Æ¸¶µµ ÇöÀç ±× °ü°è´Â ºÒ½ÅÀ¸·Î °¡µæ Â÷ ÀÖ´Ù. Áß±¹ Á¤ºÎ´Â Àü·Ê°¡ ¾ø´Â À¯¿£ Á¦Àç ¾È¿¡ ¼¸íÀ» ÇÔÀ¸·Î½á ¿¬¸»±îÁö ¼®Åº ¼öÀÔÀ» ±ÝÁöÇß´Ù. Áß±¹ Á¤ºÎ°¡ ÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Â ÀÏÀÌ ´õ ÀÖ´Ù. ¿¹¸¦ µé¸é ¸Å³â Áß±¹ÀÌ ºÏÇÑ¿¡ Á¦°øÇØÁÖ´Â 50¸¸ ÅæÀÇ ¿øÀ¯¸¦ Â÷´ÜÇÑ °á°ú 2003³â ±èÁ¤ÀÏÀÌ 6ÀÚȸ´ã¿¡ ÀÀÇß´Ù.
However, China has its limits. If the Kim regime collapsed, a massive influx of refugees would certainly make their way into the People’s Republic. South Korea is also home to 28,500 U.S. troops, and reunification might put them right on China’s border. So Kim knows China would never squeeze enough to foment its collapse. “It’s like trying to bluff at poker when the other players can see your cards,” says John Park, director of the Korea Working Group at Harvard Kennedy School.
±×·¯³ª Áß±¹µµ ÇѰ踦 Áö´Ï°í ÀÖ´Ù. ¸¸ÀÏ ±èÁ¤Àº Á¤±ÇÀÌ ºØ±«µÈ´Ù¸é Áß±¹Àιΰøȱ¹À¸·Î ´ë·® ³¹ÎÀ¯ÀÔÀÌ ¹ú¾îÁú °ÍÀº ºÐ¸íÇÏ´Ù. Çѱ¹Àº ¶ÇÇÑ 28,500¸í ¹Ì±ºÀÇ º»°ÅÁö·Î¼ ÅëÀÏÀº ÀÌµé ¹Ì±ºÀ» Áß±¹ ±¹°æ¿¡ ¹Ù·Î ¹èÄ¡µÇµµ·Ï ÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù. µû¶ó¼ ±èÁ¤ÀºÀº Áß±¹ÀÌ °áÄÚ ºÏÇÑÀÇ ºØ±«¸¦ Á¶ÀåÇÒ Á¤µµ·Î ¹Ð¾îºÙÀÌÁö ¾ÊÀ» °ÍÀÓÀ» ¾Ë°í ÀÖ´Ù. ÇϹöµå Äɳ׵𠽺Äð Çѱ¹³ëµ¿¿¬±¸¼Ò ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿øÀÎ Á¸ ¹ÚÀº “ÀÌ´Â »ó´ë¹æ ¼±¼öµéÀÌ ´ç½ÅÀÇ Ä«µå¸¦ º¼ ¼ö ÀÖ´Â Æ÷Ä¿ÆÇ¿¡¼, Çã¼¼¸¦ ºÎ¸®·Á°í ÇÏ´Â °Í°ú °°´Ù”°í ¸»ÇÑ´Ù.
Military action by the U.S. also remains a possibility, but most experts think it’s unlikely. Aside from possible North Korean retaliation, any strike would certainly shred the U.S.’s Asian security alliance and push the region closer to China. “How would the U.S. or anyone else be better off?” asks Daniel Pinkston, an East Asia expert at Troy University in Yongsan, South Korea. “It’s just insane.”
¹Ì±¹ÀÌ ±º»çÇൿÀ» ÃëÇÒ °¡´É¼ºµµ ¿©ÀüÈ÷ ÀÖÁö¸¸ ´ëºÎºÐÀÇ Àü¹®°¡µéÀº ±×·² °¡´É¼ºÀº ¾ø´Ù°í »ý°¢ÇÑ´Ù. ºÏÇÑÀÇ º¸º¹ °¡´É¼º ¿Ü¿¡µµ, ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ °ø°ÝÀº ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ ¾Æ½Ã¾Æ ¾Èº¸µ¿¸ÍÀ» ¹«³Ê¶ß¸®°í ¾Æ½Ã¾Æ Áö¿ªÀ» Ä£-Áß±¹ ¼ºÇâÀ¸·Î ¸¸µé °ÍÀÌ È®½ÇÇÏ´Ù. Çѱ¹ ¿ë»ê Æ®·ÎÀÌ ´ëÇÐ µ¿¾Æ½Ã¾ÆÀü¹®°¡ ´Ù´Ï¿¤ ÇÎÅ©½ºÅæÀº “¹Ì±¹À̳ª ´Ù¸¥ ³ª¶ó³ª µµ´ëü ¹«½¼ ÀÌÀÍÀ» º¸°Ú´Â°¡?”¶ó¸ç “±º»çÀû ÇൿÀº Á¤½Å ³ª°£ ÁþÀÌ´Ù”¶ó°í ¸»ÇÑ´Ù.
All of which leaves room for Moon’s push for engagement to succeed. Moon’s chief rival in the May 9 election, Ahn Cheol-soo, a self-made tech multimillionaire, favors a more militaristic approach to bringing the North to the negotiating table. This includes accepting the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), an antimissile defense system, which Beijing deems an affront. Moon, who was 21 points ahead of Ahn in an April 29 poll, is more cautious on THAAD, saying its deployment should be examined by the next administration.
ÀÌ ¸ðµç °ÍÀÌ ¹®ÀçÀÎÀÇ Æ÷¿ë Á¤Ã¥ÀÌ ¼º°øÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Â ¿©Áö¸¦ ³²±ä´Ù. 5¿ù 9ÀÏ ¼±°Å¿¡¼ ¹®ÀçÀÎÀÇ °¡Àå Å« ¶óÀ̹ú·Î¼ ÀÚ¼ö¼º°¡ÇÑ °úÇÐ ±â¼ú ºÐ¾ßÀÇ ¹é¸¸ÀåÀÚ ¾Èö¼ö È帴 ºÏÇÑÀ» Çù»óÅ×À̺í·Î ºÒ·¯µéÀ̱â À§ÇØ º¸´Ù ±º»çÀû Á¢±Ù¹æ½ÄÀ» ¼±È£ÇÑ´Ù. ÀÌ¿¡´Â ¹Ì»çÀÏ ¹æ¾î½Ã½ºÅÛÀÎ ¹Ì±¹ °í°íµµÁö¿ª¹æ¾î(»çµå, THAAD)¸¦ Æ÷ÇÔÇÏ°í ÀÖÀ¸¸ç Áß±¹Àº À̸¦ ÀÚ±¹¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ¸ð¿åÀ¸·Î ¿©±ä´Ù. 4¿ù 29ÀÏ ¿©·ÐÁ¶»ç¿¡¼ ¾È Èĺ¸º¸´Ù 21% ¾Õ¼°í ÀÖ´Â ¹® È帴 »çµå¿¡ ´ëÇØ ´õ¿í ½ÅÁßÇÑ ÀÔÀåÀ» ÃëÇÏ°í ÀÖÀ¸¸ç, ´ÙÀ½ Á¤ºÎ°¡ »çµå ¹èÄ¡¿¡ ´ëÇØ Á¶»ç¸¦ ÇØ¾ß ÇÑ´Ù°í ¸»ÇÑ´Ù.
But both candidates are united in their insistence that South Korea cannot be sidelined when Washington deals with the North, not least as its 50 million citizens stand to be among the first victims of any military conflict. And although younger South Koreans feel little affinity with the North, older generations are eager for the reunification Moon so desires. “My mother is the only one [of her family] who fled to the South,” Moon says. “[She] is 90 years old. Her younger sister is still in the North alive. My mother’s last wish is to see her again.”
±×·¯³ª µÎ Èĺ¸ ¸ðµÎ ¹Ì±¹°ú ºÏÇÑÀÌ ´ëÈÇÒ ¶§ ´ëÇѹα¹ÀÌ ¹èÁ¦µÇ´Â °ÍÀº ¹¬ÀÎÇÒ ¼ö ¾ø´Ù°í ¸»ÇÏ°í ÀÖÀ¸¸ç, ƯÈ÷ 5õ¸¸ Çѱ¹ ±¹¹ÎÀÌ ±º»çÀû Ãæµ¹ÀÇ ÃÖÃÊ Èñ»ýÀÚ°¡ µÉ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù´Â Á¡¿¡¼ ±×·¸´Ù. ±×¸®°í ºñ·Ï ÀþÀº ÃþÀº ºÏÇÑ¿¡ ´ëÇØ ±×·¸°Ô Ä£¹Ð°¨ÀÌ ´À³¢Áö ¸øÇÏÁö¸¸ ³ë³âÃþÀº ¹® È帰¡ ±×ó·³ ¹Ù¶ó´Â ÅëÀÏÀ» °¥¸ÁÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù. ¹® È帴 “³» ¾î¸Ó´Ï´Â [¾î¸Ó´ÏÀÇ °¡Á· Áß] Çѱ¹À¸·Î Å»ÃâÇÑ À¯ÀÏÇÑ ºÐ”À̸ç, “[¾î¸Ó´Ï´Â] 90¼¼À̽ôÙ. ¾î¸Ó´ÔÀÇ µ¿»ýÀº ¾ÆÁ÷ ºÏÇÑ¿¡ »ýÁ¸ÇØ °è½Ã°í ÀúÀÇ ¾î¸Ó´ÔÀÇ ¸¶Áö¸· ¹Ù·¥Àº ´Ù½Ã ÇÑ ¹ø µ¿»ýÀ» º¸´Â °ÍÀÌ´Ù”¶ó°í ¸»ÇÑ´Ù.
It’s a wish that resonates with countless ordinary Koreans–on both sides of the battle lines–who want peace to triumph over war.
ÀÌ´Â Àü¼±ÀÇ ¾çÂÊ¿¡ »ì°í ÀÖ´Â ¹«¼öÈ÷ ¸¹Àº Æò¹üÇÑ Çѱ¹ »ç¶÷µé, ÆòÈ°¡ ÀüÀïÀ» À̱â±â¸¦ ¹Ù¶ó´Â »ç¶÷µéÀÌ °øÅëÀ¸·Î °¡Áø ¼Ò¸ÁÀÌ´Ù.
–With reporting by ZOHER ABDOOLCARIM and STEPHEN KIM/SEOUL
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